Volvo OR: Master blasters stretch out on sprint to finish
by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz 17 Jan 2018 02:54 GMT
17 January 2018
Wild Thing skippered by Grant Wharington blasts across Bass Strait in the 1990 Melbourne Hobart Race © Richard Bennett
The Hong Kong entry SHK Scallywag continues to clock the longest 24-hour runs, having achieved the benchmark in 12 of the last 15 skeds on Leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race.
While her lead in the race is largely due to a smart navigational call, Scallywag has consistently recorded the fastest average and instant speed (taken at the actual time of the six hourly sked).
Another key factor is the skill of the crew in being able to push the Volvo 65 hard without breaking the boat.
Along with new navigator Libby Greenhalgh, another new hire for this leg has been Grant Wharington (52), whose sailing reputation was confirmed by a single photo (above).
The same shot of Wharington's boat Wild Thing at race pace in the 1990 Melbourne to Hobart, also put the Tasmanian photographer, Richard Bennett on the map as one of the top and certainly most daring of international sailing photographers.
Between Wharington and 18ft skiff sailor David Witt, there is no lack of high speed driving talent aboard, along with a good feel for the level of acceptable risk, and understanding the difference between racing and reckless.
In politics, Wharington would be known as a safe pair of hands.
With 20 Sydney Hobart races in his logbook plus two Volvo Ocean Races (Djuice Dragons in 2001-02 and Brunel in 2005-06), "Wharro" has seen most of it.
Currently, Scallywag still enjoys an 80nm lead on the water - using the distance to finish method. Using the routing function of Predictwind.com that margin drops back to 44nm or 3 hours calculated on the basis of time to finish.
The routing for all top four boats is calling for them to gybe and head south to make their final lineup for Hong Kong - which in the case of Scallywag is now just over 1000nm away.
Whether the decision makers on Scallywag choose to take the routing recommendation of press on will be one of the key points of interest in the next few hours.
All of the four feeds used in Predictwind to optimise course options recommend an immediate gybe onto port for periods ranging from 30 minutes to three hours.
A gybe onto port means that Scallywag would make no westing, or advance towards the finish - which is exactly the mistake the other six boats in the fleet made a week ago when they opted to continue to head north looking for the Trades before heading in the direction of Hong Kong.
The more logical option is to apply some dinghy racing tactics and push on making the best VMG, or speed in the direction of the finish, and then mop up any shortfall right at the end.
The hope with that option is that the wind will come ahead slightly, enabling Scallywag to drop down onto a more southerly line and maybe even lay the finish line without gybing.
The risk with the recommended option of an immediate gybe is that she has to sail south unnecessarily, and if the wind did shift ahead could actually be headed for the last day or half day. That would force a tack or at best require a slower course - having given away a big chunk of her lead by following the routing recommendation. It could cost her the much sought after Leg 4 win, into her home port.
Behind Scallywag two of the chasers have already bitten the bullet.
At around 1930UTC on January 16, AkzoNobel being the most northerly boat gybed onto port and was followed 20 minutes later by Dongfeng. Both courses were at right angles to the finish allowing Scallywag and Vestas 11th Hour Racing to continue to the finish.
Maybe at that point, they both gave up the chase for first and second and decided to secure the remaining place on the podium in Hong Kong.
The gybe enabled them to cover off the advance of overall leader MAPFRE to the south flanked by Team Brunel and Turn the Tide on Plastic.
After two hours on port and having given away 40nm to the two lead boats, AkzoNobel and Dongfeng, gybed back and resumed the chase to Hong Kong.
It's the classic covering tactic of staying between your man and the mark. Whether it was premature remains to be seen.
At 1900UTC MAPFRE elected to gybe onto port as well, while Dongfeng went into stealth mode and dropped off the race tracker.
That may have been a ploy to take another hitch on port unseen by the other boats. Or it may have just been a move to keep everyone guessing.
However as of 0100UTC on January 17, Scallywag was pointed directly at the finish line in Hong Kong and Vestas 11th Hour had dropped onto her wake, as had Team AkzoNobel indicating that the gybe five and a half hours earlier was another mistake and they had handed second place to Vestas 11th Hour.
The weather feeds are still evenly split as to whether the breeze will lighten on the final approach to Hong Kong. The conservative strategy is to wait and see - either way, the angle will still be the approximately the same according to all feeds - and the only real question is how fast the final reach will be.
Two models say Scallywag will finish around 0900 UTC (5am local time) on January 19, sailing at 22kts.
The other two say it will be 1500-1600UTC (around noon local time) on the same date, sailing at half the speed.
Either way the leg looks set to be won by SHK Scallywag who are set to become the home town heroes.
For Richard Bennett's Rolex Sydney-Hobart pics including the just completed race see richardbennett.com.au He is currently running an exhibition "Across Five Decades" at the Maritime Museum of Tasmania until January 28, 2018. You can see the exhibition online at richardbennettphotography.com