America's Cup: Can you pick a winner?
by Mark Jardine 20 Aug 19:00 BST
Emirates Team New Zealand and Alinghi Red Bull Racing - AC75 - Practice Session - Barcelona - August 15, 2024 © Ricardo Pinto / America's Cup
We've hardly drawn breath after the Olympics, and already the America's Cup is upon us. Thursday sees the start of racing in the Louis Vuitton Preliminary Regatta, where each of the teams, including the Defenders, Emirates Team New Zealand, will get to face off against one another.
There are so many questions going into this, and it's not in any way obvious whether we'll get answers in the next few days. Everybody wants to know if any team is significantly faster, or has an advantage in certain conditions.
Having just been to Barcelona and talked with the British team, it's clear that none of them truly know. There is belief amongst them, but they are wary. During the practice racing they've lined up on the water, but it's been evident that no-one has been willing to show all their cards. Will it be the same this week?
There has been so much discussion about the different designs, and what the advantages and disadvantages of each is, with Tom Morris of Mozzy Sails being by far the most engaging on Youtube. The proof though is going to be in the proverbial pudding. Great minds, and a ton of computer power, have gone into each of the designs and even Mozzy has been reluctant to pick a winner, outside of the fair bet that the Defender always comes into the America's Cup with an advantage.
It's quite possible that the fleet will be evenly enough matched that it'll come down to actual racing. So often in the America's Cup we hear that it's always won by the fastest yacht, but the 37th edition we're about to witness may change all that. For sure, having the fastest yacht would be a huge advantage but there are two factors which will play a massive part: wind shadows and Mother Nature.
Wind shadows will be crucial in this Cup. When foiling in an AC75, the wind is always coming from ahead of you, regardless of whether you're sailing upwind or downwind, so the lead boat can cover the boat behind, forcing them to take the choice of sailing in spoiled air or tacking / gybing to the unfavoured side of the course, if the leader lets them go.
Then you can also re-cross your own upwind wind shadow while sailing downwind, and vice versa. These boats are so much faster than the wind that you can throw much of what you previously knew about sailing out of the window.
This is going to put a massive onus on gaining advantage on the startline. Pre-start tactics will be critical and the tension will be through the roof. As INEOS Britannia sailing coach Rob Wilson said when I interviewed him last week:
"You can hear it in a lot of the helm's voices, that the tension goes up and it's not surprising. They're big bits of kit, the closing speeds, especially when you have a dial-up scenario, can have boats quite easily doing 45 knots, so the closing speeds are 90 knots - that's over 100 miles an hour!
"It can be tense for the guys, but that's why they're good at the job, because they're good at dealing with that pressure. Having a seven-ton boat, with closing speeds of 100 miles an hour, and they're having to fly the thing and keep the comms cool and be thinking about the next manoeuvre is quite intense, but again, it's a focus area that's really important that we get right."
So, sailing skill is going to play a massive part in this Cup. Pre-start tactics, match racing skills and covering your opponent could prove decisive in match ups. We can expect to see tacking duels, which are going to test the four cyclors - who are generating power for all the hydraulic systems - to the absolute limit.
If you want to know more about their roles, then have a read of my interviews with INEOS Britannia's cyclors David 'Freddie' Carr and Ben Cornish.
So what about Mother Nature? With the designs being visibly different, if there are advantages to each, they will likely be in certain wind conditions. Will we see a predominant wind strength during different stages of the Cup? The forecast models suggest that as the event goes on, the average wind speed will drop, but as we all know too well, the 'usual' conditions at any given venue have a habit of not ringing true at showtime...
When I chatted with Ben Ainslie last week, he agreed that conditions and sea state could be a huge contributing factor to results:
"I think you're right in terms of the sea state - it's a real challenge and we talked about that as soon as Barcelona was announced as a venue. Everyone was doing their weather studies and we knew that it was going to be a tough place to design for, because you get a range of conditions: flat water, strong winds, light winds, a big sea state - you get it all and that is a real challenge to design for.
"Then, of course, as you go through the round robins, the semi finals, finals of the Challenger Series, and then to the Cup itself, inevitably, the season shifts and the predicted average wind strength drops away. So I think it's true that Mother Nature is going to have her say in the outcome of this to a certain extent. I'm not making excuses for anyone, but we all know that it's part of the challenge here."
When it comes to designs, the America's Cup is always pushing the boundaries, and Sail-World.com's New Zealand Editor Richard Gladwell lifted the lid on the latest Rule Enquiry; there has been a request for interpretation of the rules governing Surface Finishes and it is clearly aimed at the US Challenger, New York Yacht Club American Magic.
The question uses the AC75 Class Rules governing the characteristics of surface finishes as a rules missile, aimed at the US team, and questions the legality of the honeycomb fairing covers used on the four recumbent cyclor cockpits on the US Challenger.
Firstly, why are the US team using recumbent cyclors, when it's generally agreed that in this position they'll generate 10% less power? By adopting this position, the US team have managed to create a far more aerodynamic AC75 hull, which is visibly less tall than their competitors. Will the trade off be worth it? Time will tell.
We'll see how the cockpit fairing rules interpretation pans out, and whether the US challenger has to modify their design or remove their honeycomb fairing. You can be sure that this 'test' of the design rules, and how they are interpreted, won't be the last.
The clock is ticking for all the teams, and racing is about to begin. While this week isn't the moment of truth, let's hope it does shine a bit of a light on who's got it right, and who needs more time in the shed to hone their boat.
Don't forget the Puig Women's America's Cup (5th - 13th October) and the Unicredit Youth America's Cup (17th - 26th September). Both of these events could be spectacular, with both fleet racing and match racing elements, being held in one design AC40 yachts, which are fast and nimble. We'll be writing much more about these in the coming weeks.
You'll be able to watch the racing live on the Sail-World.com and YachtsandYachting.com homepages, where broadcast rights allow. Right now it seems the USA and Australia are the main countries where there are Youtube broadcast restrictions, but that may change.
Regardless of your view on the America's Cup, and the foiling AC75 yachts, this is one of those moments where sailing will be in the spotlight. Tell your friends just how exciting these boats are to watch, and get behind your team, or choose a favourite if your country isn't competing. This is going to be exciting, it will attract people to our sport, so let's all back it!
Mark Jardine
Sail-World.com and YachtsandYachting.com Managing Editor